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Virus disruption will leave severe and lasting scars

India’s economy is all but certain to contract this year for the first time since 1979. And the government’s reluctance to respond to the coronavirus crisis as aggressively as those elsewhere means that the recovery will be slow too, as household and corporate incomes and bank balance sheets will all suffer lasting damage. We think the economy will be 7% smaller in real terms at the end of 2022 than would have been the case had the virus not existed.

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