Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)

India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in February. But the reading is still strong, and prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near term.
Julie Nicol Office Administrator (Singapore)
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India Economics Weekly

Omicron surging, asset sales progressing

COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long. Even if it doesn’t, the better-than-expected fiscal performance over recent months means that there is policy space for the government to intervene.  

14 January 2022

India Data Response

Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)

Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

India Economics Weekly

Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave

India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the past. And South Africa’s experience with Omicron provides some reassurance that the outbreak could be brief.

7 January 2022

More from Julie Nicol

Australia & New Zealand Chart Book

Unemployment rates to rise

The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate in ten months. But the rate of jobs growth isn’t strong enough to keep up with growth in the labour force, so the unemployment rate is now the highest it has been in eight months. And with business surveys, job ads and economic activity all pointing to softer employment growth we suspect the unemployment rate will rise further this year. In New Zealand we suspect the slowdown in employment growth has further to run,which should flow through to an increase in the unemployment rate before long.

3 June 2019

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May)

Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick rebound.

3 June 2019

India Economics Weekly

Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation

Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from the post. Of the two apparent front-runners, the appointment of Piyush Goyal would point to policy continuity, while the appointment of Amit Shah would raise the prospect of looser fiscal policy.

31 May 2019
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