Since the onset of war in Ukraine, we have revised down our forecast for world GDP growth in 2022 from 4.0% to 3.2%. Outside Russia and Ukraine, our biggest downward revisions have been to other economies in emerging Europe and to the euro-zone. There is now a meaningful risk of recession there and in the UK. Elsewhere, the effects should be smaller, but the risks to our new forecasts are skewed to the downside, relating particularly to the threat of a renewed intensification of global supply shortages.
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