PMIs show industrial revival boosting prices further

The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost pace in Asia, reflecting a slowdown in demand for imports including electronics as advanced economies reopen. Meanwhile, supply constraints have continued to build and output prices are rising fast around the world.
Jennifer McKeown Head of Global Economics Service
Continue reading

More from Global Economics

Global Economics Focus

Will labour shortages spur productivity gains?

One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on cheap labour. However, any gains in productivity may not materialise quickly enough to prevent central banks from reacting to the pick-up in wage growth. In view of the wider interest, we have also made this Global Economics Focus available to clients of our Long Run Service.

2 December 2021

Global Economics Update

PMIs show some signs of supply shortages easing

November’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production has continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. There are tentative signs that supply disruptions may be easing, but from a very strained starting point, and virus developments may cause a renewed deterioration soon.

1 December 2021

Global Economics Update

Renewed restrictions: inflationary or disinflationary?

If Omicron turns out to be malign enough to prompt tighter restrictions, we suspect that the net result would initially be for inflation to be lower than otherwise. But by worsening product and potentially labour shortages, restrictions on household activity could end up keeping inflation above targets for longer.

1 December 2021

More from Jennifer McKeown

Global Central Bank Watch

How will central banks respond to the inflation threat?

The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the inflation threat and other factors will determine the path of policy in the world’s major advanced and emerging economies in the months ahead. We also highlight some key dates and events to watch for more information about the inflation outlook and how central banks’ reaction functions are evolving.

30 June 2021

Global Economics Update

COVID Recovery Monitor

Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue, albeit with risks around new variants. The story is less positive for EMs, where vaccination has typically been slow. But there are hopeful signs that China could soon be exporting vaccines on a very large scale.

17 June 2021

Global Economics Update

Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening?

There are signs that countries whose rollouts are advanced have hit something of a limit, with the remaining population now reluctant to be vaccinated. But this will not necessarily prevent economies reopening once the vulnerable are vaccinated. Potential vaccine-resistant strains are the bigger threat. Recent weeks have seen a slowdown in vaccinations in several economies due to a reduction in…

28 May 2021
↑ Back to top