Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election

Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election

With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive approach, but he would not prevent a further decoupling with China or the stalling of globalisation more generally.
Vicky Redwood Senior Economic Adviser
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More from Vicky Redwood

Long Run Focus

Global migration to bounce back

Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus from a big rise in the number of people leaving Africa over the coming decades. This could help to mitigate the problem of ageing populations in developed markets, although countries will continue to display varying degrees of openness to immigration.

15 June 2021

Global Economics Update

How concerning is the recent rise in inflation?

A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of the year has exceeded even our relatively strong expectations. While this might primarily reflect transitory factors, we continue to think that the risk of a sustained rise in inflation is bigger in the US than in other developed economies.

10 June 2021

Long Run Focus

Will we start working less?

The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors and some countries. Other things equal, fewer hours worked would dent GDP. However, a reduction in working hours could boost participation and/or make workers more productive. As for the impact on the composition of economies, a rise in leisure time could give a boost to recreational sectors.

13 May 2021
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