Euro-zone Flash HICP (July)

Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Economics Weekly

Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising

Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than most expect. Next week, we will host a Drop-in webinar on the causes and effects of the recent surge in European gas prices.

17 September 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.)

Rising costs – from shipping to energy – are likely to push euro-zone inflation up even further in the coming months. They might also mean that it doesn’t fall quite as quickly next year as we currently assume. But by the end of 2022, we still suspect that inflation will be a long way below the ECB’s target.

17 September 2021

European Data Response

EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) & Ind. Prod. (Jul.)

The sharp fall in euro-zone average hourly labour costs in Q2 compared to a year earlier was mainly due to pandemic-related distortions to the data that will continue to muddy the picture for another couple of quarters. Nevertheless, the spare capacity in the labour market will keep wage growth subdued.

15 September 2021

More from Michael Tran

European Data Response

EC Survey (July)

Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow across all sectors. That said, we expect inflation to fall back sharply once these shortages dissipate.

29 July 2021
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