Euro-zone Final PMIs (July) and Retail Sales (June)

The final PMIs show that the euro-zone’s recovery continued apace at the start of Q3. Price pressures are continuing to mount and point to an increase in inflation in the coming months, but we expect this to be temporary. Meanwhile, retail sales increased again in June, to nearly 5% above pre-pandemic levels.  
Andrew Kenningham Chief Europe Economist
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European Economics Update

How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone?

A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However, any economic fallout would probably be fairly small and short-lived and other factors, not least the course of the pandemic, will continue to have much more influence on the economy. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this European Economics Update to clients of our Energy Service.

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European Economics Update

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25 January 2022

European Data Response

German Ifo Survey (January)

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25 January 2022

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European Economics Weekly

Reopening effects to persist in Q3

The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that the ECB will struggle with excessively low inflation over the medium term. Next week we expect to learn that euro-zone retail sales rose again in June and the Composite PMIs for Spain and Italy increased in July.
 

30 July 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2)

After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.  

30 July 2021

European Data Response

Germany Flash Inflation (July)

The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived. Inflation is likely to drop back sharply early next year and to settle below 2% over the medium term.

29 July 2021
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