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Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.)

January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly once the Omicron wave fades and restrictions are eased. Drop-In (14:00 GMT, 26th Jan): UK Outlook -- More inflation, more interest rate hikes. Join our UK Economics team for a briefing on the 2022 outlook, including why we’re below consensus on growth but think the BoE will raise rates more than most expect. Register here.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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More from Europe

European Economics Update

Answers to your questions on the ECB

We held a Drop-In today to discuss our views on the ECB and what the chances are of a further hawkish surprise in the coming weeks. (You can see an on-demand recording here.) This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn’t answer during the event.

24 May 2022

European Economics Update

Rising interest costs add to pressure on EZ households

We estimate that euro-zone households’ debt interest payments will quadruple as a share of income over the next couple of years as the ECB raises its policy rate. This will put yet further strain on households which are already struggling with higher costs and as such weigh on economic growth. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

24 May 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May)

The small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI in May suggests that activity is holding up better than we had feared. But the services rebound is likely to run out of steam amid high inflation and the drop in new orders bodes ill for industry. So GDP growth is still likely to be weak for much of this year. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

24 May 2022

More from Michael Tran

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in December will embolden the hawks at the Riksbank. While we expect energy effects will drop out this year, continued supply-chain problems and rising inflation expectations will mean the chance of a hawkish shift in February’s policy announcement has increased.

14 January 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.)

November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that industry now seems likely to have contracted in Q4, presenting a downside risk to our forecast of a 0.2% rise in GDP.

12 January 2022

European Data Response

EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.)

The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also showed that inflation expectations remained extremely high.

7 January 2022
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