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Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.)

The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our assumption that the euro-zone economy will contract in Q2 as consumption declines.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Data Response

German ZEW Survey (August)

The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy prices on both households and industry takes effect. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

16 August 2022

European Economics Weekly

Energy crisis hotting up

The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal-fired power plants. Next week, we expect to learn that employment increased slightly in the second quarter. Drop-In: Europe under siege – The economic impact of Russia’s gas threat Thursday, 18th August 10:00 ET/15:00 BST. Register now.

12 August 2022

European Economics Focus

Why we expect a euro-zone recession

We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be held back by a lack of policy support. What’s more, we think the biggest risks to our forecasts are to the downside, notably from Russia turning off the gas taps completely or the ECB failing to avert a sovereign debt crisis.

11 August 2022

More from Michael Tran

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the repo rate and press ahead with “QT” this year.

14 April 2022

European Data Response

EZ Retail Sales & German Industrial Production (Feb.)

The small increases in euro-zone retail sales and German industrial production suggest that economic activity was growing at a modest pace in February. With much higher energy prices now weighing on manufacturing and consumption, the euro-zone economy is likely to struggle over the coming months.

7 April 2022

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Mar.)

Swiss inflation rose further above the SNB’s definition of price stability in March, and higher commodity prices and continued supply problems will keep it there for most of this year. Given the broader hawkish shifts by global central banks, the SNB is likely to start to normalise its policy settings this year.

1 April 2022
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