Hopes that the euro-zone is turning a corner look premature. The latest activity data have been disappointing, with retail sales falling in October and national data pointing to another decline in industrial output. Business surveys paint a bleak picture for November too. Our GDP Tracker suggests that the euro-zone economy will expand by only 0.1% q/q in Q4, and forward-looking components of the surveys suggest that there will be no improvement at the start of next year. For example, firms’ expectations suggest that services activity growth will soon take another leg down. In short, there is so far little support for the consensus and ECB view that growth is poised to rebound next year.
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