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How an effective vaccine might impact EM exports

An effective vaccine rolled over the course of 2021-22 would probably result in weaker demand for COVID-19 related products and some consumer goods, removing a tailwind to exporters in parts of Asia and Central & Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices would lift export values for natural resources exporters. And a recovery in tourism would be a welcome boost to services exports from the likes of Thailand and Turkey.

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