Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates

Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil output next week. At the margin, the scale and pace of the fall in oil prices may push back the timing of rate hikes in Hungary and bring forward policy easing in Turkey. And the Polish MPC is likely to temper some of the more hawkish language used at last month’s meeting when it meets next week.