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What next for the Turkish lira?

The shift towards orthodox policymaking at Turkey’s central bank has supported a rally in the lira and, so long as the policy shift sticks (as seems increasingly likely) and the external environment remains supportive, we think that the currency’s appreciation has further to run. We forecast the lira to end this year at 7.00/$ which, if correct, would mark the currency’s first annual gain against the dollar since 2012.

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