Poland GDP (Q4 2020)

GDP figures show that Poland’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q4, which is likely to have been among the larger falls across Europe. Containment measures are likely to be lifted slowly in a few sectors in the coming weeks, and the ongoing strength of industry will help GDP to return to growth in Q1. But the slow pace of the vaccine rollout means that the downside risks to the recovery from Q2 are mounting.
Liam Peach Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Emerging Europe

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems

The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher inflation and growing fiscal and banking sector risks. Drop-In: Jason will be discussing Turkey's mounting economic risks in a 20-minute online session on Thursday at 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT. Register here.

18 January 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect of tighter Western sanctions on the table. The downside risks for the ruble and Russian assets are building, as are the upside risks for European natural gas prices. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Europe Economics Update to clients of our Commodities Overview, Energy, FX Markets and Global Markets services.

14 January 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge

A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent tone may be an increasing sign of things to come, which is met by a rising threat of Western sanctions, weighing on Russian and Ukrainian financial markets. Meanwhile, Turkey's net FX reserves plunged to just $7.8bn last week, providing an even more pitiful backstop in the event that banks and corporates struggle to roll over their large external debts.

14 January 2022

More from Liam Peach

Emerging Europe Economics Update

BoI withdraws support, but no sign of tightening

Israel’s strong economic recovery prompted the central bank to phase out one of its emergency support programmes at today’s meeting and Governor Yaron’s comments suggest that the next step towards policy normalisation may involve the end of the bond purchase programme later this year. That said, interest rate hikes remain a distant prospect while inflation remains low.

5 July 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains

The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s determination to rein in inflation should keep Russian bond yields high and provide the ruble with more protection in this global environment. We now expect the ruble to end next year at 76/$ (previously 80/$).

In view of wider interest, we are sending this Emerging Europe Economics Update to clients of the FX Markets service as well.

2 July 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: a strong recovery in Q2, but risks ahead

Another strong batch of activity data for May suggest that Russia’s economy may have returned to just shy of its pre-pandemic level in Q2. The foundations are in place for the recovery to continue in Q3, but the latest virus wave and the possibility of a further tightening of containment measures pose a key threat.

1 July 2021
↑ Back to top