Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)

April’s robust manufacturing PMIs for Czechia and Poland were artificially boosted by longer supplier delivery times and there were further signs that supply chain issues have caused price pressures to build. Elsewhere, tight monetary conditions and virus restrictions have weighed on manufacturing in Turkey.
Nicholas Farr Assistant Economist
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More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye

Poland’s industrial sector as a whole has shaken off widespread materials shortages in recent months, in part due to its more diversified sectoral make-up than the rest of CEE. But it also reflects the fruits of recent investments into new production capacity in key sectors of manufacturing, which we think will continue to help Poland’s economy outperform the rest of CEE in the new few years.

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Russia Activity Data (Oct.)

Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep virus restrictions tight for some time, we think the economy will lose steam in the coming months.

1 December 2021

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Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be sceptical that this strength will be sustained in the coming months.

1 December 2021

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Manufacturing PMIs (June)

The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and there was further evidence of price pressures building across the region.

1 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (June)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of growing price pressures in the region, with firms reporting higher selling price expectations across various sectors.

29 June 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention

The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile, the temporary export duty imposed on certain metal products in Russia this week is yet another sign that the government is becoming more concerned about the consequences of high and rising inflation.

25 June 2021
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