Regional GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have picked up from 2.2% y/y in Q3 to around 2.5% y/y in Q4. This was predominantly driven by a recovery in Turkey’s economy, where policymakers are pulling out all the stops to support activity. Russia probably maintained a similar pace of growth to that in Q3. One weak spot was in Central and Eastern Europe, where growth appears to have slowed sharply as weakness in key export sectors intensified. We expect regional growth to gather pace early this year as policy loosening in Russia and Turkey continues to offset a further slowdown in Central Europe.
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