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Philippines GDP (Q1)

The Philippines economy beat expectations again in Q1 and should have gained further momentum in recent months. But we suspect the strength of the recovery will begin to wane soon. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal

The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp slowdown in global demand over the coming year. However, a weaker currency is still a concern given the country’s inflation problem, and is another reason why we think the Bank of Korea will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Pakistan looks to be on the cusp of agreeing the terms of a new deal with the IMF. This comes after the government took the key step of raising petrol prices and abolishing fuel subsidies. With foreign exchange reserves running low, a deal is essential to put the economy on a firmer footing. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI

Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial sectors face a tough year ahead. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: on the mend

Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, but with inflationary pressures relatively low, we are sticking with our view that the central bank will not raise interest rates this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank Negara Malaysia will go slow following early hike

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its main policy rate earlier than many had expected today, but given low inflation and a continued need to support the recovery, we still think that the tightening cycle will be much more gradual than markets expect. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

11 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Sri Lanka: five questions and answers on the crisis

The resignation yesterday of the prime minister, the postponement of talks with the IMF, surging inflation and the collapse of the currency are just some of the many problems facing Sri Lanka. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the outlook for the country. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

10 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: What to expect from Bongbong Marcos

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is eager to resume the “Build Build Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor and pursue closer ties with China. Extra spending on infrastructure would be welcome and could provide an important boost to the country’s prospects. In contrast, the potential economic benefits from closer ties with China are likely to be quite small, especially given the risk that a pivot towards Beijing could jeopardise the country’s more important economic relationship with the US. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

9 May 2022
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