Korea Trade (Nov.)

Korean export values surged to record highs in November helped by temporary factors but also strong underlying growth. Exports should remain elevated for at least the next few months, helped by a gradual recovery in the auto sector.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economic Outlook

Central banks in no hurry to tighten

Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to raise interest rates in 2022, but with inflationary pressures in most countries set to ease, other major economies will be in no hurry to tighten.

25 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Surprise move by the MAS likely not its last in 2022

The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) surprise move to tighten policy today, ahead of its usual April meeting, probably won’t be its last. We think the added uplift to inflation from a domestic outbreak of Omicron will force the MAS to tighten again this year.

25 January 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea GDP (Q4, provisional)

While Omicron means that the strong GDP growth recorded in Q4 2021 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, the recovery should be back on track before long. With the economic outlook still upbeat, the Bank of Korea is set to continue tightening over the quarters ahead. Drop-In (08:00 GMT, 27th Jan): China Outlook – Cyclical trough, tepid rebound. Join Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard for a discussion about China’s economic and policy outlook this year. Register here.

25 January 2022

More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

November Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the rebound in industry from the Delta wave in South East Asia continued last month, and we suspect it has further to run. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Activity Data (Oct.)

Korea’s economy is likely to have already rebounded from the downbeat October revealed in activity data today. But prospects for continued improvements have diminished, as a resurgence in virus cases pushes back the timeline for reopening the economy further.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

30 November 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to hike at least three more times in 2022

Today’s move by the Bank of Korea is likely to mark the second hike of at least five, in a tightening cycle that began in August and will extend well into next year.

25 November 2021
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