Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will significantly restrain net migration despite PM Morrison’s intention to lower the cap on permanent migration. Meanwhile, we expect economic growth in the US to slow over coming quarters. However, given the reduced trade links between the US and Australia, this won’t prevent the RBA from raising interest rates in 2020 even if our forecasts prove accurate and the Fed is simultaneously cutting rates.
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