Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) While machinery orders rose for the third straight month in April, we still expect business investment growth to slow this year as rising uncertainty over the economic outlook takes its toll. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) While exports rose in May, weaker global demand and the escalating trade war suggest that they will start to fall again before long. 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Pressure for reform ratcheting up The withdrawal this week of the preferential trade status granted by the US to several Indian products will have limited economic impact given that exports of the affected goods were worth just 0.2%... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may have to cut rates to 0.75% We think that today’s 25bp rate cut may be followed by two additional rate cuts before the year is out. Combined with renewed falls in iron ore prices, that suggests that the Australian dollar may... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The fall in retail sales in April demonstrates that the housing downturn is continuing to weigh on consumption growth. And we expect subdued consumption growth will continue to dash any hopes of a... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts not the start of aggressive easing cycle The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was able to cut rates today as a result of the resilience of the currency, but we doubt this will last. We think that the rupee will come under pressure again this... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea should change its mind soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold today in the face of a clear cut case for looser policy, but we think it will eventually change its stance. With the Bank likely to be looking... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) The latest survey data suggest that economic growth in China has yet to bottom out. Given the growing headwinds from US tariffs and signs that the labour market may be faltering, we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Higher spending may provide a small economic boost Significant increases in operating and capital spending are a welcome takeaway from today’s Budget. But the economic impact is likely to be modest and the government is still expected to be a drag on... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rebound in early 2020 We expect the current housing downturn to end around the turn of the year. We think that house prices may rise by 3% from their trough in 2020 and by 5% in 2021. While rising house prices should boost... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness ahead Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in car sales exaggerating consumption weakness The recent sharp drop in vehicle sales might signal that household consumption has slumped. But a significant part of the drop in sales can be explained by industry-specific factors including higher... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Despite the rise in March’s core machinery orders, investment in machinery and transport equipment is likely to have fallen in the first quarter. Early indicators also suggest that orders will remain... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
