A $100 oil price would not be a disaster

We still believe that the oil price is more likely to fall from US$80 per barrel to US$65 rather than rise to US$100 as some have suggested. But even if it did hit US$100, inflation in Australia wouldn’t rise much above 2.5% and the hit to households wouldn’t be too large. That said, that hit would add to the existing pressure on households from low income growth, falling house prices and tightening credit conditions.