Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria

After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts for Nigeria and Angola are below-consensus. But most economies in the region will benefit from lower oil prices. Indeed, this is one reason why South Africa’s cyclical recovery will probably strengthen this year. Currencies are likely to fall against the dollar this year, but by less than in 2018. And inflation should ease. That’s likely to bring interest rate cuts back onto the agenda in South Africa.