South Africa CPI (Mar.)

The larger-than-expected fall in South African inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in March will give the central bank more room for manoeuvre. Although yesterday’s announcement of a fiscal package by the government relives pressure on the Reserve Bank to act, given the scale of economic damage, we think more easing is on the horizon.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat

A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial markets. A tightening of local containment measures is likely to follow, dampening economic activity, and the threat of a new virus wave will linger.
Drop-In: The B.1.1.529 strain – The economic and markets impact 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Friday 26th November Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing will be joined by senior economists from across our services at 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT today to give their views and answer your questions about the potential economic and markets impact of this new virus strain. Click here to register and to submit your questions ahead of the session. 

26 November 2021

Africa Economics Update

CBN maintains interest rates, but hints at policy shift

The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today, but the statement signalled that monetary policy normalisation is now on the horizon. While we don’t expect interest rates to be raised imminently, we have pencilled in 200bp of hikes over 2022-23.

23 November 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

African central banks and the EM rate hike club

This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as central banks across Emerging Europe and Latin America. Elsewhere, a further fall in inflation last month and soft Q3 GDP figures mean that Nigeria’s central bank is unlikely to join the EM rate hike club any time soon.

19 November 2021

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Africa Economics Update

SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness

South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery.

10 June 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q1)

South Africa’s economy weathered a second virus wave relatively well, but with cases rising again and other headwinds hanging over the outlook, the recent strength of the recovery is unlikely to last.

8 June 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut

The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of further waves and other headwinds will weigh on the recovery. Meanwhile in Ghana, policymakers delivered a surprise interest rate cut this week, but that is unlikely to be followed by further easing in Ghana or elsewhere in the region.

4 June 2021
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