Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in the next stage of the COVID crisis So long as the revival in the global economy continues, even if only gradually, we forecast that “risky” assets will resume their comfortable outperformance of “safe” ones. We do not buy the argument... 2nd July 2020 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Surging case numbers may threaten US equities’ outperformance The sectoral composition of the US stock market helped it to hold up better than its European counterpart as the coronavirus spread around the world earlier in the year. But the more recent trend of... 29th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Returns from gilts likely to be paltry even if policy remains loose Gilt yields have risen slightly today, but we doubt that they will climb much further, given we expect the Bank of England to keep policy ultra-loose for many years. However, since we also doubt the... 18th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Low inflation limits downside risks for bonds If we are right that the world faces a period of low inflation over the next few years investors are unlikely to begin anticipating tighter monetary policy and so undermine the returns from government... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in sterling could have further to run If we are right in thinking that some sort of compromise can still be reached on a UK-EU trade deal, the tentative recovery in the pound over the past few days could continue. 20th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the pull-back in US equities will continue The break in the rally in US equities this week is unsurprising, given just how rapidly they had recovered. While they could fall further in the near term, we doubt US equities will revisit the lows... 14th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Worst-hit EM sovereign $ bonds likely to recover most We expect the returns from EM sovereign dollar bonds to be quite strong over the next few years, as the global economy gradually recovers. With some notable exceptions, we think that the dollar bonds... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US-China tensions unlikely to hold equities back for long Global equities have fallen back in recent days and could come under more pressure in the near-term if tensions between the US and China continue to rise. However, the latest flare-up between them... 4th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Euro likely to recover if the ECB does more for Italian bonds We think that today’s small rise in the euro could be a sign of things to come, assuming that the ECB acts to contain Italian bond spreads. 29th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lower oil prices unlikely to hold most equity markets back While the plunge in oil prices may have played some part in yesterday’s equity market sell-off, we doubt that oil will have that big of a bearing on most developed world equity indices over the coming... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt that gold will continue to outperform While gold has rallied over the past month, we don’t think that it will continue to outperform most other asset classes in the way that it did in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). On... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Energy returns likely to underwhelm even if oil prices rebound While we expect energy prices to recover a long way in percentage terms, we think that returns will underwhelm, and doubt that they will exceed those from global equities by much. 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Energy commodities unlikely to outperform equities Although energy commodities have substantially underperformed global equities in recent months, we think that the returns from both will be broadly similar over the remainder of 2020 if, as we expect... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A short recession could mean US equities bounce back quickly Measures to contain the coronavirus will probably cause the one of the biggest ever reductions in output in the US. But if we are right that it will not last very long, equities may be past the worst... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM Equities in Latam and EMEA likely to outperform Given how far they have fallen, we think EM equities in Latin America and EMEA will outperform their Asian peers once the coronavirus comes under control, even if the economic fallout in the former... 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
