Asset Allocation Update Equities, commodities, and the risk of higher inflation The fallout from COVID-19 will probably keep inflation subdued in the near term. But there is a risk of significantly higher inflation further ahead if earlier policy stimulus starts to push prices up... 28th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Economy probably more important than politics for US equities Despite the perceived risk of a disputed US election, we think that the US stock market will recover from its recent wobble, and go on to make further gains, as the economy gradually recovers, aided... 21st September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Energy commodities could outperform US equities The two asset classes that we track which have seen by far the most action since the last edition of the Asset Allocation Chart Book on 5th August are US equities and energy commodities. Not only have... 10th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of recent moves in currency markets While the recent loss in appetite for risk and plunge in oil prices appear to explain some of the recent moves in currency markets, we do not think that they tell the full story. 9th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Short-term gain but long-term pain for energy stocks? We suspect that some of the recent underperformance of energy stocks will unwind over the next few years if, as we forecast, the prices of energy commodities grind higher. Nevertheless, we think that... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the underperformance of energy stocks We suspect that some of the recent poor performance of energy stocks will unwind in the short-term if, as we forecast, oil prices grind higher. Nonetheless, we think the longer-term outlook for the... 26th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the DNC might signal for US equities In our view, US equities would do a bit better over the next few years if Donald Trump wins re-election than under Joe Biden. However, the tone of this week’s Democratic National Convention (DNC)... 21st August 2020 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Stocks likely to beat bonds regardless of election result Political uncertainty often seems to have weighed on the performance of US equities, both in absolute terms and relative to Treasuries, before a presidential election. But another lesson from history... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The coronavirus crisis six months on Today marks six months since the coronavirus crisis started to weigh heavily on global markets. Although the S&P 500 is now back where it was on 19th February, many sectors of the US market, equities... 19th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that higher real yields are about to undermine equities Growing optimism that the coronavirus can be brought under control appears to explain why this week has seen both a rise in real yields and healthy gains in some equity markets. We expect most equity... 12th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The possible winners and losers from Biden’s tax plans While Joe Biden has said that he would clamp down on the US companies, particularly in the technology, pharmaceutical and biotech industries, who book much of their earnings in tax havens, we think... 12th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Hunt for yield could continue to underpin risky assets The broad-based recovery in “risky” assets that got underway on 23rd March has run out of steam since 8th June. That is not because policy support has been dialled back. Instead, it appears to reflect... 5th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We think that Fed policy will keep Treasury yields well anchored Despite signs the economic recovery in the US is slowing we expect the FOMC to shy away from making any major policy changes when its meeting concludes later on Wednesday. But we would not rule out a... 29th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think that US REITs could outperform US equities The recent underperformance of US equity REITs compared with ordinary US equities seems to reflect concerns that the coronavirus could change behaviour in a way that hits the demand for many types of... 16th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think that sterling has further to climb Despite the UK government’s refusal to request an extension to the Brexit transition period before the 30th June deadline, sterling has fared well in July so far. This seems to be mostly due to... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing policy support may spur further gains in risky assets We think that there is scope for spreads of investment-grade corporate bonds and euro-zone peripheral government bonds to decline further against the backdrop of a gradually recovering global economy... 8th July 2020 · 5 mins read
