Asset Allocation Update Treasury yields, inflation compensation & US equities The retreat in US Treasury yields over the past month or so seems at odds with the US economy’s fundamentals, and we doubt that it will be sustained. Our forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2021... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (May 2021) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides an updated set of projections for the returns from major asset classes over the next few decades. Given that the period since the previous edition of this... 27th May 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The stock market rotation may have further to run Even if, as we suspect, the outperformance of the energy and materials sectors soon comes to an end, we expect the broader rotation in equity markets to continue over the next few years. 24th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The next phase of the stock market rotation Although we think that the recent outperformance of the energy and materials sectors will soon come to an end, we still expect the financials sector to continue to fare better over the next few years... 24th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of risky asset valuations In this Update, we take a look at the valuations of a broad range of the “risky” assets that we cover on our Asset Allocation service. We think that six key points stand out. 14th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think that rotation may leave DM REITs behind Although we forecast that that the “rotation” in equity markets generally has further to run, as COVID-19 is contained and economies re-open, we project that developed market (DM) Real Estate... 6th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Commodities We think that commodities & US equities will diverge While commodities and US equities often move in the same direction, this is not always the case. We expect poor returns from commodities over the next few years, but reasonable returns from US... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Yields may resume their climb, despite central bank guidance We do not think that dovish guidance from developed market (DM) central banks about the near-term outlook for policy rates is a barrier to longer-term bond yields rising in markets where the economic... 27th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Apr. 2021) Following their sharp rises earlier on in the year, government bond yields have steadied over the past few weeks. Perhaps reflecting this, both global equities and developed market (DM) REITs have... 23rd April 2021 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bond rout and equity rotation likely to resume We are forecasting a very strong – but also somewhat uneven – recovery in the global economy over the next couple of years as the pandemic is gradually contained, with three key implications for asset... 16th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Biden’s tax reforms: further fuel for the rotation trade? If enacted, President Joe Biden’s corporate tax reforms could become a significant drag on US equities and hit the earnings of technology, pharmaceuticals and biotech companies particularly hard... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Higher corporate taxes creeping up the agenda While any changes to the US tax code may not materialise for many months yet, it seems increasingly clear that the Biden administration intends to pursue its campaign trail pledge to raise corporate... 6th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of our asset allocation views In light of a raft of recent forecast changes, this Update presents the latest returns projections of our Asset Allocation service for the next couple of years. We think six points are worth... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The recovery in the US dollar may have further to run We expect the US dollar to end this year a bit stronger against most other DM currencies, as bond yields rise by more in the US than elsewhere. We think that the greenback will make some of its... 24th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Flashbacks to May 2013? Unlike during 2013’s “Taper Tantrum”, we think that Fed policy will prevent a further sell-off in US Treasuries from leading to a broad-based rout in “risky” assets anytime soon. 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the prospects for further rotation Although we do not expect US bond yields to keep on climbing sharply, we nonetheless think that the recent “rotation” in the US stock market has further to run, given the upbeat prospects for the... 12th March 2021 · 4 mins read
