Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market? US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Risky assets face a more challenging backdrop While the combination of a strong economic recovery and accommodative monetary policy has fuelled healthy returns for many investors over the past 18 months or so, we think that the macroeconomic... 29th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, Treasury yields & the US stock market While we do not expect a tumble in the US stock market, we doubt that it will remain quite as resilient in the face of rising US Treasury yields as it has in recent weeks. 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Oct.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 22nd October 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We expect the rise in China’s bond yields to reverse Rather than continue its recent rise, we think that the 10-year government bond yield in China will fall back over the next couple of years, even as US Treasury yields climb further. 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s slowdown will stop Treasury yields from rising We doubt that worries about a sharp slowdown in China’s economy will prevent US Treasury yields from rising further, in contrast to what took place in mid-to-late 2015. 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Infrastructure & reconciliation unlikely to mean Q1 rerun While the large fiscal stimulus passed in the US in the first quarter of this year appears to have been a key reason why equities there outperformed Treasuries at the time, we think that the... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US debt ceiling debacle? The longer the current political spat over the US debt ceiling drags on, the more likely it becomes that the resulting uncertainty puts some pressure on “risky” assets. Somewhat counterintuitively... 5th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 29th September 2021 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight What would an era of higher inflation mean for markets? We expect underlying inflation in the US to be significantly higher over the next decade on average than it has been over the last one. Nonetheless, we don’t think that it will climb sharply from here... 29th September 2021 · 27 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Developments in China shake up the outlook Three key developments in China over the past month or so are worth highlighting, as they feed into our broader asset allocation forecasts for the next couple of years. First, what started as a... 16th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Putting risky asset valuations into context This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as... 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US stock market’s relative valuation? The high valuations of US equities relative to those elsewhere are, in our view, another reason to think they will lag their peers in the rest of the world over the coming years. What next for the ECB... 8th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM assets & the risk of higher inflation We think that there is a risk of a period of moderately higher inflation in some major emerging markets (EMs) over the coming years. If that came to pass, it would probably be bad news for local... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
