Asset Allocation Chart Pack Mounting growth concerns leave few places to hide The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM assets & the risks from tighter DM monetary policy We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at... 27th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Start of a sustained rebound or just another bear market rally? Despite today’s more than 2% gain in the S&P 500 at the time of writing, we doubt we have seen the bottom in the index given our views that the Fed’s tightening cycle is a long way from over and that... 21st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Turning more downbeat on both Treasuries & US equities The prospect of tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged presents upside risks to our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield as well as downside risks to our forecasts for the S&P 500. In... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn US inflation highlights the risks to our forecasts The strength of price pressures evident in May’s US CPI report seems to have raised the risk of the Fed hiking rates by even more than we had thought in order to bring inflation under control, and... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The pain for US markets is probably not over yet Given that price pressures in the US show little sign of easing, we doubt that the Fed will take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. We therefore suspect that more pain is yet in store for US asset... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equity valuations still much higher than elsewhere Despite the sharp fall in the US stock market this year so far, US equities still appear much more highly valued than their peers in the rest of the world. While that might not tell us much about the... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Soft landing for the economy but perhaps not for markets? While we forecast that the US economy will merely slow rather than enter a recession, we still expect twin sell-offs in stock and bond markets to resume, with value stocks and defensive sectors... 8th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Twin recoveries in Treasuries and US equities may not last For much of this year, expectations of tighter Fed policy have driven up Treasury yields, weighing on the US stock market’s valuation in the process. That has changed since we published our last Asset... 31st May 2022 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Consumer staples stocks may outperform again Even if high inflation continues to put downward pressure on profit margins, we still suspect that the consumer staples sector in the US will be a relative bright spot against a backdrop of... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily Growth might underperform value for a while yet While US equities have fallen across the board today, “growth” stocks have continued to fare even worse than their “value” peers. We think that this underperformance has further to run, given that the... 9th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update S&P 500’s valuation suggests downside but not disaster While the valuation of the S&P 500 appears high in absolute terms – even after the falls in the index in 2022 so far – it seems far less stretched once the still historically low real yields of US... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We do not expect a swift rebound in US equities Although the further dip in the S&P 500 so far today means that it has now fallen by more than 11% since its high at the start of this year, we think that the index is unlikely to recover... 25th April 2022 · 5 mins read
