Asset Allocation Chart Pack Odds look stacked against risky assets Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so. We don’t think... 1st June 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update Narrow stock market rallies have rarely lasted long Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this year’s rally in US equities is just how narrow it has been. We think history suggests that this bodes poorly for the S&P 500’s prospects over the rest of... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Debt ceiling debacle threatens renewed turmoil While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries... 18th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily US mega-cap stocks are in need of some more friends The S&P 500 has posted solid gains in 2023, but that has largely been due to surges in a few “mega-cap” stocks. This is a trend that we doubt can continue for very much longer. 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily BoE gives little away, but we still expect lower gilt yields While we would not be surprised if the Bank of England raises rates by a bit more in the coming months, we think investors are underestimating the scope for rate cuts further ahead. We expect this to... 11th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Dialling back our optimism about Chinese equities With China’s economic rebound losing momentum and investors’ attention shifting back to concerns about the country’s political and economic model we think the near-term prospects for Chinese equities... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack 2023’s rally in US equities is looking a little thin The MSCI USA Index has not made much further headway on net in April so far. But it has at least held on to its strong gains from earlier in 2023, returning about 8% YTD. Part of that strength... 28th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some tweaks to our views on equities and currencies Resilience in much of the global economic data of late has raised questions over whether the recessions we expect in most developed markets (DMs) will materialise later than we had initially thought... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US growth stocks may lose some more of their shine We think that the more recent underperformance of some of the largest US growth stocks could be a sign of things to come over the coming years, given how large the valuation gaps between growth and... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Growth stock valuations still look unsustainably high We would not be surprised if US “growth” stocks outperformed their “value” peers by a bit more in the near term. But we still suspect that growth will underperform value substantially over the longer... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Strains have eased but banks aren’t out of the woods yet Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. 14th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
Event Drop-In: How has bank turmoil affected the financial markets outlook? 4th April 2023, 3:00PM BST With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX. Chief...
Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
