Asset Allocation Chart Pack European assets face a more challenging backdrop While European prices for natural gas have retreated in recent days, the widely tracked TTF benchmark has still risen by more than 20% in August, and remains at a level about ten times higher than was... 31st August 2022 · 15 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We see little chance of a GFC-style collapse in US REITs While we think that US REITs have further to fall over the rest of this year, we doubt that they will fare nearly as badly as they did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), nor underperform... 30th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Chinese equities have yet passed their worst A raft of recently announced policy support has not put an end to the struggles of China’s stock market. We think that it will continue to slide, given that the economy faces multiple challenges... 22nd August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for stock market sectors We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this... 17th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th August 2022 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Answers to your questions on global markets We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. In... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the worst is yet to come for most risky assets Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest... 5th August 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations still don’t point to a rebound in US stocks Despite the plunge from its highs late last year, the valuation of the S&P 500 still doesn’t look all that low to us. This informs our view that the index has not yet reached a trough. 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy and materials stocks face rough ride as commodity prices come off the boil, says economist The S&P GSCI energy spot index, which tracks prices for oil and its derivatives, peaked on June 9. While it still trades over 40% higher year-to-date, it’s down by 17% since its peak. Industrial... 20th July 2022 · MarketWatch
Commodities Update Energy and materials stocks may continue to underperform Although we doubt that they will fare quite as badly as they have in recent weeks, we still expect the energy and materials sectors of global stock markets to underperform over the next couple of... 19th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities still face many headwinds We think that several data releases and events over the past week or so lend some support to our view that China’s stock markets will continue to struggle. 15th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equity outperformance may prove short-lived The resurgence in China’s stock market may already be over. We forecast that the MSCI China Index will struggle alongside major equity indices elsewhere over the next year or two, as China’s economic... 12th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market and metals prices may continue to diverge We think that the recent divergence between the fortunes of China’s stock market and the prices of most industrial metals will continue, albeit with the former seeing renewed falls and the latter... 4th July 2022 · 5 mins read
