Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the market reaction to vaccine developments We think that the relatively muted gains in most equity markets in recent weeks reflects how positive news about potential COVID-19 vaccines has been partly offset by the renewed surge of infections... 23rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Low Treasury yields may help US REITs to outperform US equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) have underperformed ordinary US equities considerably in 2020 despite a plunge in US Treasury yields, which usually provides more of a boost to the... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The market implications of rising inflation compensation Long-term inflation expectations in the US have ticked back above their level on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic following recent positive headlines about vaccines. (See Chart 1.) But we suspect that... 17th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Latam & EMEA Equities may continue to outperform As investors have digested the prospect of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, many of the patterns in financial markets which have been a feature during the pandemic have started to unwind. One... 16th November 2020 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Valuations could work in favour of US equity REITs The relatively low valuations of US equity REITs influence our view that they will outperform ordinary US equities over the next two years or so, provided that COVID-19 is contained. 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weighing up the relative prospects for energy & metals We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Weighing up the relative prospects for energy & metals We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Weighing up the relative prospects for energy & metals We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for energy & metals We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Sizing up the post-election risks to US Treasuries Treasury yields may rise further if the Democrats secure a “clean sweep” on Tuesday, but we still think that the chances of a very large sustained move, on the scale of the one that followed the last... 2nd November 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect EM equity outperformance in Asia to end We think that MSCI’s indices of emerging market equities in Latin America and EMEA will reverse some of their recent underperformance relative to the MSCI EM Asia index over the next few years, just... 26th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Safe havens providing scant shelter The past week has delivered further evidence that “safe” assets now provide less of a hedge against moves in equities than they have done previously. We think that this reflects changes in how... 20th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think fundamentals favour further RMB appreciation In our view, the near-record gap between government bond yields in the US and China is one reason to think that the climb in the renminbi against the US dollar has further to run. 16th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that the Fed will let Treasury yields rise further If the recent rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield continues, how the Federal Reserve responds may have some key implications for many markets. 6th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The winding road to recovery The market movements of recent weeks are a timely reminder of the importance of the main near-term risks – coronavirus cases rising in major economies as winter approaches, and uncertainty about the... 2nd October 2020 · 23 mins read
