Commodities Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM currencies likely to weaken; Chilean peso an exception Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Election risks for sterling are skewed to the downside The continued climb in sterling this week suggests that a Conservative win in Thursday’s election is now close to fully discounted. So even a landslide victory might hardly see the pound rise. 10th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls point to Treasury yields rising a touch further With November’s employment report confirming that the US labour market is still robust, it seems increasingly likely that the Fed has finished cutting interest rates for the time being. That would be... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lingering uncertainty limits the near-term upside for sterling Despite the growing likelihood of a Conservative majority, sterling has only edged higher in recent weeks. We think that the pound could rise further if the party win a majority, but that its stance... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Central bank asset purchases likely to keep yields low Although we think that the Fed is now done cutting rates, we think that more easing is coming outside the US and that major central banks will remain net buyers of bonds. With this in mind, we... 28th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update South African bonds and the rand likely to sell-off The loss of the South African government’s final investment grade credit rating is already largely priced in, but there are still reasons to be downbeat on the country’s government bonds, and the rand... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Looser fiscal policy unlikely to mean a bloodbath for Gilts Despite a slight dovish shift, the Bank of England’s decision to leave rates on hold today led to only a small market reaction. Speeches from both Conservative Chancellor Sajid Javid and his Labour... 7th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for EM currencies We think that the recent weakness in emerging market (EM) currencies will continue during the rest of 2019, as a weaker global economy triggers a fresh bout of risk aversion. In 2020, we think that... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A pick-up in sterling looks increasingly far off Even if US and China reach a partial trade deal this week, we doubt that it will last Account of ECB’s September meeting to highlight divisions among policymakers Latest round of tariffs probably... 9th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Global factors the greatest risk to Japan’s equity market While the hike to Japan’s sales tax means its economy will probably contract in Q4, we suspect that the impact on bonds and equities there will be fairly small. However, we still think that Japan’s... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s tax hike unlikely to have a big effect on markets there RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (05.30 BST) We think that euro-zone headline inflation fell to about 0.8% in September (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing index probably... 30th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC sovereign yields likely to rise despite dovish central banks Mexico’s central bank will probably cut rates later on Thursday We think that the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a 4½-year low (10.00 BST) US personal spending data likely to show... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds likely to struggle from here The combination of a broad-based easing cycle in emerging markets and strong demand for risky assets has pushed local currency emerging market (EM) sovereign yields down sharply in 2019. However, we... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
