Capital Daily Political deadlock is likely to cap sterling’s gains UK MPs to return to Parliament on Wednesday following Supreme Court ruling We think that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 25bp (08.05 BST) But the New Zealand and Czech central banks... 24th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Even without a recession, both bonds and equities could suffer A drop in fresh food prices probably weighed on Japan’s headline CPI inflation (00.50 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have bounced back in July (13.30 BST) We suspect that euro-zone consumer... 19th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Market fallout from Aramco attacks likely to remain small FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday widely expected to result in a 25bp rate cut UK-EU Brexit talks set to “intensify”, increasing optimism about a deal We think that US industrial production rebounded... 16th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields likely to rise further even if equities tumble The central bank of Poland is likely to stand pat, and strike a more hawkish tone Mexico’s industrial production probably edged down in July (12.00 BST) We think that both headline and core producer... 10th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for the US labour market favours bonds over equities UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election (Monday) We expect the ECB to cut deposit rate by 10bp and reinforce forward guidance (Thursday) US retail sales... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Any boost to prices is unlikely to last long While the US-China trade war has continued to escalate, commodity prices have clawed back a little of their lost ground since the trough at the end of last week. This was aided in part by President... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Trade escalation and G7 do not change our oil view While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Powell & China wake commodities from their slumber After a quiet start to the week, Friday’s announcement of additional Chinese tariffs on US imports and Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole stirred prices (and President Trump) into action. Most... 23rd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Any UK petroleum reserve sell-off would be small beer A no deal Brexit later this year could mean that the UK government decides to substantially reduce its strategic reserves of petroleum products. But even after a reduction, the UK’s reserves should... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While most of last week’s draw in US commercial crude stocks was down to a drop in net imports, the latest figures showed another strong week for both inputs to refineries and gasoline demand. But... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly A short-term reprieve, before prices fall further President Trump’s decision to delay the proposed 10% tariff on just over $150bn of Chinese imports gave a lift to most industrial commodity prices this week. That said, any optimism about an improved... 16th August 2019 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update USDA estimates for supply disappoint grains markets The higher-than-expected forecasts for wheat and corn production in 2019/20 included in the USDA’s latest projections have sent prices tumbling. While we think that agricultural markets are right to... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
