Capital Daily Pandemic’s political impact may be another blow for US equities We think that the spread of the coronavirus in the US, and its impact on the economy, is likely to be pivotal for Donald Trump’s chances of re-election. 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to remain strong until pandemic peaks While we think that most currencies will eventually regain much of the ground that they have recently lost to the US dollar, we don’t expect that process to start until the pandemic has clearly passed... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fed swap lines might not be enough to stop the dollar’s rise While the additional swap lines announced by the Fed today seem to have given respite to a few embattled currencies, they may not be sufficient to stop the dollar in its tracks. We think that the... 19th March 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Market mayhem may get worse before it gets better The turmoil in financial markets caused by the global spread of COVID-19 shows little sign of abating, despite policymakers’ efforts to contain the fallout. Our view remains that until evidence... 17th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Global equities could fall further in the near term We think that global equities could yet fall further in the coming weeks and months, despite the plunge in most markets today. We still expect a recovery later this year, but the timing looks likely... 9th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities likely to bounce back if virus fears fade A surprising feature of the recent sell-off in global equities is the underperformance of the UK. There are still reasons to think UK equities will outperform in the coming years, but this may have to... 26th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Presidential election could yet weigh down US equities In our view, the lack of reaction so far in the US equity market to the election campaign may be too complacent. We think that the substantial downside risks posed by a Bernie Sanders presidency could... 10th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Labour market could matter more for US equities later this year January’s employment report has unusually taken a back seat in markets today, as the coronavirus outbreak still dominates the headlines. However, that might not last – the health of the US labour... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Sanders’ surge could be bad news for US equities Bernie Sanders is still a long way from the White House, but several of his policies look very negative for US equities. If his support continues to climb that could start to weigh on the US stock... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US equity market seems complacent about a Sanders presidency There so far seems to have been little reaction in the US stock market to the recent surge in support for Bernie Sanders, despite the major shift in policy that his presidency could represent. That... 4th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Poor returns likely from US corporate bonds & stocks We think that the returns from US corporate bonds and equities will be nowhere near as good in 2020 as they were in 2019, given the outlook for Treasury yields, credit spreads, and corporate earnings. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
Capital Daily Rest of 2020 likely to be brighter for sterling Sterling has failed to rise so far in 2020. However, we expect it to pick up over the course of this year, as the UK economy starts to turn a corner. 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling’s ‘Boris bounce’ may have mostly run its course After a stellar performance in the final few months of 2019, sterling has been the only G10 currency to weaken against the US dollar since the Conservative Party’s election win on 12th December. While... 7th January 2020 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equities likely to rise more slowly in 2020 than 2019 Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
