Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Mar. 2021) In this first edition of the Long Run Returns Monitor we present an updated version of the projected returns from the major asset classes which feature in our annual Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook... 5th March 2021 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Rotation in equity markets may have further to run While equity markets came under pressure towards the end of the month, they generally weathered February’s roughly 30bp rise in the 10-year US TIPS yield quite well, with most major indices still... 2nd March 2021 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Are REITs more at risk than equities from rising yields? We doubt that Treasury yields will continue to climb rapidly. However, that would be another reason to expect the returns from US REITs to fall short of those from ordinary US equities over the next... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily COVID-19 & equity markets: one year on Today marks a year since the pre-COVID-19 peak in global equities, a level which has long been surpassed as markets have come roaring back from their March lows. We expect a combination of continued... 19th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update We expect commodities to underperform US equities Although we expect oil prices to rise a bit further this year, we doubt that we are in the early phase of a new “super cycle” in commodities. In fact, we project that the returns from commodities will... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook 2020s unlikely to be a rerun of the 1930s and 2000s We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s... 16th February 2021 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Toning down our optimism on US REITs While we still expect US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) overall to fare reasonably well over the next couple of years, we no longer anticipate that they will outperform the US stock market. 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Putting the wave of speculation into context Extreme speculative movements in the prices of a handful of stocks and of silver have generated a lot of headlines over the past month. But those surges have not been reflected in the performance of... 2nd February 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the renminbi to resume its rally against the US dollar While the recent rise in Treasury yields may have contributed to a very small unwinding of last year’s significant rally in the renminbi against the US dollar, we expect China’s currency to strengthen... 18th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Even less evidence of equity bubbles outside the US While we doubt that the US stock market’s current valuation will prevent it from making further gains, the fact that valuations are much lower in other parts of the world suggests to us that equities... 15th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The economy, monetary policy and the S&P 500’s valuation We doubt that the valuation of the S&P 500 will prevent it from making further gains over the next few years. After all, big falls in its valuation usually have their roots in either a weakening US... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Coronavirus recovery rally may be far from over Although the incoming economic data are likely to remain poor until around mid-2021, we forecast that “risky” assets will continue to outperform “safe” ones comfortably over the next couple of years... 7th January 2021 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We do not think that most risky assets are overvalued We disagree with the idea that the valuations of most “risky” assets have risen to unsustainably high levels. In fact, we think that the valuation of the US stock market could have scope to rise a... 17th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Comparing the outlook for equities in Latam and EM Asia We think that the dramatic outperformance recently of equities in Latin America in general versus their peers in EM Asia has much further to run, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 9th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Reflation, rotation and risks Good news about progress on coronavirus vaccines in the past month has started, or fuelled, a number of trends which we broadly expect to last through 2021, as those vaccines help the global economy... 2nd December 2020 · 12 mins read
