UK Economics Update MPC sitting on the fence, but could jump either way The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) dovish shift at its November meeting leaves the Committee unsure in which direction the next change in interest rates will be. As well as softening its language... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy could hit the government’s lead in the polls Although we estimate that the 0.2% q/q contraction in GDP in Q2 was followed by a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3, it is clear that the economy is spluttering rather than firing on all cylinders. We think that... 6th November 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Oct.) The recovery in the services PMI in October will allay fears that the largest sector of the economy is slipping into recession. Nonetheless, the survey suggests that the risks to our forecast that GDP... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit, general election, interest rates and rugby If the Conservatives win a majority at the election on 12 th December as the polls suggest, it could be the moment we move from a “repeated delay” Brexit scenario, in which demand continues to be... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch A loosening bias emerging Unless the headwinds of weak global growth and Brexit uncertainty fade, the next move in interest rates may be down. But the chance of a Brexit deal in January means the majority of the Committee will... 31st October 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Update Johnson’s Brexit deal could allow uncertainty to linger The political benefits of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal may also prove to be its economic downsides. If the deal is eventually passed in its current form there would effectively still be a chance of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Further upside for sterling if Brexit deal is approved If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end... 22nd October 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Unchanged CPI inflation of 1.7% in September was softer than either we or the consensus (1.8%) expected which might delay interest rate hikes following a Brexit deal and increase the chances of rate... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Aug.) GDP fell on the month in August, but thanks to solid increases in May, June and July any remaining concerns that the economy fell into recession in Q3 have been well and truly banished. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q2 Final Estimate) The revised GDP figures suggest the response to Brexit uncertainty since the referendum has been larger than previously thought. While headline GDP growth was little changed in recent years, household... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) High government spending in the early months of 2019/20 and the change to how student loans are counted in August’s public finances data, combined with the spending increases announced in the Spending... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling bumping into Brexit ceiling Equity markets have recovered much of their losses in recent weeks and, after hitting multi-year lows at the start of September, sterling and bond yields have also rebounded. (See Chart 1.) This is... 23rd September 2019 · 8 mins read
