UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS All-Sector PMI (Jun.) While the PMIs are tricky to interpret at the moment, the recovery in the all-sector PMI from a trough of 13.4 in April to just shy of 50 in June is another sign that there has been a strong initial... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The Bounce Back Loan Scheme restored access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises in May. That increases the chances of a swift recovery but will also raise the fiscal cost of the crisis... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Return of risk appetite to buoy assets if virus contained Market conditions have generally improved in recent months, with government bond yields remaining low, corporate bond spreads almost back to their pre-coronavirus levels and the FTSE 100 recovering... 25th June 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery underway, but the biggest challenge awaits The sharper-than-expected rebound in retail sales in May shows that the economy has turned the corner and embarked on the recovery leg at pace. However, the idea that the coronavirus will cause a very... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) The bigger-than-expected rebound in retail sales in May, was driven by another big step up in online sales and the reopening of DIY stores, and is a sign that the economy started to get back to its... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The consensus is still too optimistic Other forecasters were slow to appreciate the depth of the recession. Since then, the consensus GDP forecast has been revised down close to our own. But we think other forecasters are still... 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Return of risk appetite to benefit UK assets A continued return of risk appetite as the economy slowly recovers from the coronavirus crisis will boost equities and the pound so long as there is a compromise on Brexit. But with the Bank of... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Apr.) At its peak in April the lockdown reduced economic output by 25%, making the coronavirus crisis by far the deepest recession on record. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was 7% in both the Global... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update High business borrowing is the lesser of two evils The huge amount of borrowing undertaken by firms in the last three months is reassuring in the sense that businesses are getting the cash they need to make ends meet. But some firms won’t be able to... 11th June 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Output only crawling back While the most restrictive period of the lockdown is behind us, the measures enforcing business closures and social distancing are only being eased very gradually. According to the ONS “Business... 4th June 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Focus Another decade of ultra-loose monetary policy The swift and significant response of the Bank of England to the coronavirus crisis has prevented a financial crisis, but we think the Bank will need to do much more than the markets currently expect... 4th June 2020 · 31 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (May) While the slight easing in social distancing rules in May helped industrial confidence to recover a little, the headline UK Economic Sentiment Indicator fell further in May as services and retail... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (May) The nature of the PMIs makes them tricky to interpret, but the rise in the composite PMI from 13.8 in April to 28.9 in May probably shows that April was the low point for activity, and that the slight... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) The headline labour market figures have not yet caught up with the fall in employment of between 500,000 and 1 million revealed in the timelier data for April. Given the shut down of so many... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Debt lessons from the east The Treasury is reportedly already thinking up ways to reduce public debt in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis in order to maintain investors’ confidence. But other countries with much higher... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Policy to anchor gilt yields and to buoy equities As a protracted economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will force the Bank of England to keep interest rates close to zero and further expand its quantitative easing programme, gilt yields will... 14th May 2020 · 12 mins read
