UK Markets Chart Pack To cut, or not to cut, that is the question The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on whether to cut rates in January rests on a knife edge and could go either way. The MPC must weigh up the weakness of the economy and low inflation in Q4... 16th January 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Our thoughts on the chances of a January rate cut We have argued for some time that a near-term interest rate cut is a strong possibility. The market has now come around to this view. While the decision is a toss-up, at least until we see the next... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Nov.) The sharp decline in GDP in December is partly due to some activity being brought forward before the 31st October Brexit deadline. Nonetheless it leaves the economy on course to stagnate or contract... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly “Uncertainty” is still the key word While the UK will officially leave the EU at the end of the month, the transition period will give firms some breathing space which we expect to lead to some recovery in economic activity. That would... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q3 Final Estimate) & Public Finances (Nov.) Christmas has come early with the ONS revising up GDP growth in Q3 from 0.3% to 0.4% in its annual data deluge before the festive break. But the festive cheer will probably be short-lived seeing as... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities to make up lost ground The post-election jump in UK equities could just be the start of a sustained rally. Concerns Brexit and higher taxes under a Labour government mean that UK equity indices have underperformed over the... 17th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in October suggests the labour market has stabilised, so the Monetary Policy Committee will probably hold off cutting interest rates at Thursday’s meeting... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the election result affect the markets? As the markets have priced in a high chance of this Thursday’s election delivering a Conservative majority there is little immediate upside left for the pound or gilt yields, although equities might... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What will investors unwrap on Thursday night? The gap between the main parties in the polls suggests a Labour-led government is still plausible, but by far the most likely result of Thursday’s general election is a Conservative majority. That... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Election to mark a turning point for the economy The anticipation of next week’s election delivering a substantial majority for the Conservative Party and leading to a Brexit deal has already triggered a turning point in the financial markets, with... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Nov.) In contrast to the flash PMI’s for November which pointed to GDP growth slowing further, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indictor (ESI) points to a stabilisation. And a slight improvement... 28th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The election on 12th December is likely to mark the beginning of a new phase for the UK economy, determining not only the type of Brexit (or if Brexit happens at all) but also the size and shape of... 26th November 2019 · 19 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) The worst October for the public finances for five years won’t prevent whoever wins the election embarking on a fiscal splurge. Borrowing appears to have been higher than expected due to Brexit... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Would investors shun gilts if Labour won the election? Labour would probably borrow a lot more than the Conservatives if it won the election, but we doubt gilt yields would soar. Labour’s fiscal plans wouldn’t bring debt sustainability into question... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks of the election outweigh downside risks As the markets have not fully priced in the Conservatives winning the general election on 12th December and securing a Brexit deal, if that were to happen we suspect the pound would climb from $1.28... 13th November 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) After GDP growth disappointed expectations yesterday, the smaller than expected fall in employment in the three months to September was something of a relief. At the margin, the figures reduce the... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
