UK Economics Weekly Forecasting a parallel universe In our latest UK Economic Outlook, “An economic multiverse” (16th July), we set out the different paths politics could send the economy down. The MPC took a different approach this week, forecasting... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update How low could the pound go? Our estimates suggest that if a no deal Brexit was fully priced into the market the pound would fall from $1.22 (€1.09) now to about $1.15 (€1.05) or a little lower. 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Lingering downside risk to sterling With the pound having recently weakened to a two-year low of $1.24 and the markets seemingly no longer pricing in the possibility of official interest rate hikes if there’s a Brexit deal or delay... 24th July 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the big current account deficit cause a problem? Were the UK an emerging market the hedge fund vultures would already be circling following the rise in the current account deficit to 4% of GDP last year – the largest in the developed world. While... 22nd July 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) There is little pressure for the MPC to adjust interest rates in either direction with CPI inflation remaining at the Bank of England’s 2% target for a second consecutive month in June. The continued... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook An economic multiverse As Brexit could dramatically alter the near-term outlook for the economy, we are continuing to publish three sets of forecasts based on different Brexit outcomes (deal, no deal and more delays). But... 16th July 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Markets pricing in a cut – deal or no deal While the financial markets are right to expect interest rates to be cut if there is a no deal Brexit, we think they have gone too far by pricing in the possibility that rates will be reduced if a no... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.) Following the falls in the manufacturing and construction surveys, the smaller decline in the headline business activity balance of the services PMI, from 51.0 in May to 50.2 in June, was a bit of a... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q1 2019) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, but that probably marked a temporary high as activity was brought forward ahead of the original Brexit deadline. Consequently the... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors do a u-turn on rate hikes Investors have reassessed the outlook for UK monetary policy over the last month and have gone from expecting rate hikes at the start of May to expecting cuts now. This is partly because of a... 26th June 2019 · 7 mins read
