UK Economics Chart Pack Past the nadir, but normal a long way off While the latest data suggest that our estimate that GDP has fallen by an eyewatering 25% from peak to trough is in the right ballpark, it looks as though the most restrictive parts of the coronavirus... 5th May 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update What shape will the coronavirus recovery take? The shape of the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis mainly depends on the spread of the virus, the effectiveness of the policy response and the extent to which consumers and businesses... 27th April 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) In March CPI inflation took the first leg of what we suspect will be a sustained journey down to around 0.5% by the summer, easing from 1.7% in February to 1.5%. 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Market functioning restored, but risks remain Strains in the financial markets have generally eased due to policymakers’ decisive action and equity markets have rebounded on hopes that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing. Of course, asset... 21st April 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to get back to full health We think it will take the economy a few years to recover from an unprecedented hit to GDP of around 25% triggered by the lockdown implemented to contain the coronavirus. That’s because despite the... 16th April 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Hit to economic health will linger for years With the number of people fighting COVID-19 in hospital rising day by day, the recent talk of an “exit strategy” from the lockdown appears premature. Even when the restrictions are lifted, consumer... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rising chance of an extension to the Brexit transition period Brexit is clearly not a priority right now. But with negotiations shelved due to the coronavirus, it is becoming increasingly likely that the government agrees to extend the transition period beyond... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response All-Sector PMI & GfK Consumer Sentiment (Mar.) The incoming data continue to confirm that the UK is destined for the sharpest fall in economic output for over a century in Q2. And the collapse in consumer confidence to its lowest since 2009... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & Composite PMI (Mar.) The downward revisions to March’s PMIs confirm that the measures taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus have pushed the economy into a recession of unprecedented scale and depth. 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic costs of lockdown will be huge It’s become clearer that the economic costs of the lockdown to contain the coronavirus will be huge. The plunge in the activity PMIs in March provide some tentative support to our view that GDP could... 2nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Explosion in gov’t borrowing won’t push up gilt yields We doubt that the coming explosion in government borrowing or the accompanying rise in government debt will push up gilt yields. Low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates mean that they gilt... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A completely new type of recession This coronavirus recession isn’t anything like a “normal” one. The fall in output will be sudden and vast. The huge policy response means the recovery should be much quicker than normal too. But the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The first conventional data for March confirmed that the coronavirus was having a massive negative impact on activity even before the Government stepped up the severity of its measures to slow the... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) After coming in at about 2% of GDP in 2019/20, the budget deficit will soon explode to close to the size seen in the great financial crisis. The government’s measures to combat the economic fallout of... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update High frequency indicators start to show virus impact The high frequency indicators we track show that the spread of the coronavirus is already having an impact on the economy. There is no doubt these activity indicators will deteriorate further as the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
