UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling big casualty of financial market disarray 18th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2020 – Austerity is out, spending is in The coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus announced by the Chancellor and the Bank of England today shows that policymakers are pulling out all the stops to ensure that the coronavirus results in... 11th March 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative gilt yields won’t be common The fall in gilt yields into negative territory on Monday implies that investors think that the Bank of England will cut interest rates to emergency levels and keep them there for the foreseeable... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Coronavirus complicates new policymakers’ task The drop back in equity prices this week heaps more pressure on the new head honchos at the Treasury and the Bank of England to deliver some measures to help mitigate the economic effects of the... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus hit to the economy is coming The economy started the year on a strong note, but it is only a matter of time before it succumbs to the effects of the coronavirus. To reflect the weaker global backdrop and the likelihood that... 5th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Feb.) The small rise in the all-sector PMI in February suggests that Q1 was shaping up to be a good quarter for the economy. But we suspect the survey will take a turn for the worse in March as the economic... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Virus-hit global demand to weigh on the UK The failure of the Chinese economy to recover promptly from the measures put in place to contain the coronavirus means that world demand growth will be softer than we had anticipated this year, but... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Capacity for a substantial rise in public construction We think that the construction sector has the capacity to deliver an increase in public sector investment of around £50bn over the next five years if it is phased in gradually. Unless capacity... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) & Public Finances (Jan.) The continued strength of the PMIs in February proves that the surge in January wasn’t a flash in the pan and gives us confidence in our view that economic growth will pick up in the first quarter. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets may be caught out on interest rates We think the financial markets will be caught out this year by a decent acceleration in the quarterly rate of GDP growth preventing interest rates from being cut below 0.75%. And if we are right to... 12th February 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Activity no longer in rate-cutting territory Signs that the economy has turned a corner support our view that interest rates won’t be cut from 0.75% this year. After all, the activity PMIs are no longer in the territory where rates have been cut... 6th February 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the fiscal stimulus deliver much bang for its buck? We think that the coming fiscal stimulus will raise annual GDP growth by about 0.6ppts this year and 0.25ppts in 2021. This is part of the reason why we expect GDP growth to beat the consensus... 3rd February 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate call on track, a Brexit transition into the unknown Thursday’s interest rate decision was a good first step on the road to vindicating our view that interest rates won’t be cut this year. And the Bank’s new forecast suggests that the bar to a rate cut... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from the flash PMIs last week that sentiment in the services sector improved markedly after the election, but that... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends (Jan.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The rebound in the main balances of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in January offers further evidence that sentiment has taken an upward turn after the general election. This should help to convince... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
