UK Housing Market Update Second wave may pull house prices back down The second lockdown will have a smaller immediate impact than the first as the housing market is allowed to remain open this time. But it will also put the economic recovery into reverse and push the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How far will employment have to fall to meet GDP? The end of the national furlough scheme on 31 st October sets the stage for a sharp fall in employment. That’s why the Chancellor had to increase the generosity of the replacement Job Support Scheme... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Second lockdown fears weigh on equities The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) Monthly borrowing in September was the third highest on record, only exceeded by that in April and May when the pandemic and the fiscal response were at their height. With the recovery stuttering and... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government support for employment fading The government is removing some of its support to employment. The national furlough ends on the 31 st October and the new Job Support Scheme is less generous and narrower. As a result, the pace of the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Employment revisions highlight rental market risks The big downward revision to employment in the labour market statistics reveals that renters have seen a larger hit to employment than homeowners. This supports our view that house prices will be... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal or no deal gulf narrows UK-EU relations deteriorated on one front this week, with the EU starting legal proceedings over the UK’s plans to undermine parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, but improved on another as negotiations... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus Brexit – deal or no deal is not the big issue As the differences between a Brexit deal and a no deal are not as big as they once were, the economic costs of a no deal have diminished. The bigger risk is that relations between the UK and the EU... 1st October 2020 · 44 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The government borrowed another huge sum of £35.9bn in August as it continued to absorb much of the cost of the COVID-19 crisis. But while the Chancellor announced some modest further support... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack COVID and Brexit risks rising The concerns about the consequences for the economy from a second wave of COVID-19 and a no deal Brexit, which have reduced the FTSE 100 almost back to April’s level and weakened the pound from $1.35... 23rd September 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The further rise in retail sales in August was particularly encouraging as we know non-retail spending picked up at the same time, suggesting that consumer spending has rebounded strongly. 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Strength of initial rebound won’t prevent more QE As the Bank of England already has a QE programme in place and financial markets have remained calm, it was no surprise that the MPC voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged in September. But we... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Curbing our optimism on UK equities We don’t think that the recent underperformance of UK equities will continue. But we no longer expect them to make up the ground that they have lost to their peers since the virus hit. 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
