Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Update “One Canada” boost won’t come overnight The One Canadian Economy Act (Bill C-5) is a positive step towards reducing dependency on the US in the long run. But it will do little to offset the blow to trade from tariffs given that even fast... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update How might India push back against Chinese imports? India’s goods trade deficit with China is now at a record high. This largely reflects rising goods imports from China which, while bringing economic benefits in some areas, are also raising concerns... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s industry takes a hit Our China Activity Proxy suggests growth slowed further in May, with US tariffs weighing on industrial activity. While services growth did pick up, that seems to have been driven by a temporary boost... 24th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Manufacturers struggling to escape tariffs despite USMCA Data from the first two months of US tariffs being in effect suggest that both Canadian and Mexican manufacturers were struggling to make their exports USMCA-compliant, which poses a downward risk to... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Israel-Iran impact, US-Africa trade, DRC peace deal The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Middle-East conflict clouds ECB outlook Our base case remains that the Israel-Iran conflict eases, energy prices drop back and the ECB cuts rates one more time in this cycle. But if energy prices stay around their current levels further... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China’s green exports hold up in the face of US tariffs China’s New Three export volumes edged down in May, but remained close to record highs, as the impact on trade from US tariffs was partially offset by increased shipments to the Middle East. While the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well so far, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or (in China's case) have avoided... 20th June 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But... 19th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in... 19th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update Carmakers slashing prices in response to US tariffs There are signs that Japanese carmakers are reducing their prices in the US to retain market share, which seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that US tariffs will weigh on corporate... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
