Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea goes to the polls with economy struggling Korea’s election takes place against a backdrop of an economy that may already be in recession, given the weakness of data published this week. We expect fiscal stimulus from the new president and a... 30th May 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters unlikely to benefit from US court ruling Even if the higher courts uphold the order to remove Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, we doubt this would result in a lasting tariff reduction for China. Both Trump's love for tariffs and the... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) The latest data confirm that the world economy got off to a weak start this year. World trade has been one bright spot, as firms attempt to front-run tariffs. But business surveys have softened, and... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rerouting will ease tariff blow to Chinese exports The Trump Administration has announced that transshipped goods will be subject to a 40% tariff instead of the regular reciprocal rates. This will stack on top of any other tariffs applicable to the... 29th May 2025 (Updated 1st August 2025) · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe-US trade talks after the US court ruling Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: GCC-ASEAN-China summit, Saudi’s shrinking trade surplus The GCC-ASEAN-China summit this week contained a lot of platitudes about boosting trade and investment between China and the Gulf. But it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Tariffs start to drag on China’s growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth slowed in April. But, so far, US tariffs seem to have had a bigger impact on consumer sentiment than industrial activity, with rerouting and... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Uneven hit to metals prices from slowing global trade Less favourable conditions for global goods production and trade will be yet another factor weighing on demand for industrial metals and supports our view that prices will fall by more than the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How will Australia weather the China slowdown? Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly... 27th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
