Global Economics Update Tariffs affecting sentiment more than activity so far Q1 GDP data showed that most of the world’s economies were still growing at a decent pace ahead of the main tariff hikes and several were boosted by front-running. Consumer and business confidence... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam seems to be riding the tariff wave again Early signs are that Vietnam is doing well as US buyers look to find alternative suppliers outside China. 6th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar 2025) The widening in the trade deficit to a new record high in March was driven entirely by imports of pharmaceutical products as firms looked to front-run tariffs. This was broadly in-line with the BEA’s... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2025) The surprise improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March, despite the imposition of US tariffs, was thanks to a surge in exports to other countries. Nonetheless, as the survey indicators of... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the drama in Asian FX We see a few reasons to be sceptical about the chances of a broad-based upwards revaluation of Asian currencies, despite recent moves. 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Exporters could fill some of China's void India looks relatively well-positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term. And India also stands out as likely to benefit over the long term – the... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update China’s export surge and what it means for Africa The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: shrugging off the trade war (for now) Data published for Korea from the past few days suggests the economy remains weak, but that the trade war so far appears to be having a minimal impact. While exports to the US fell, the declines were... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tariffs and green tech; Canada’s “carbon tax” election New US tariffs announced this month will raise the cost of green technologies and add to the growing list of headwinds facing the green transition under President Trump. Meanwhile, the Liberals’... 30th April 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 25) US tariffs will start to weigh on China’s export growth soon. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but it won’t be enough... 29th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s Q1 growth weaker than officials claim Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
