Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of 10% US tariff on euro-zone would be small We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (November 2024) The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward... 14th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Trump Tariffs, retaliation, concessions and trade deals This report was originally published on 14th November 2024. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China raises the risk that at some point the UK will also be subject to... 14th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
Europe Economics Update Tariff threat to German auto sector another headwind In light of the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on auto imports, we're resending this note from last November which looks at the impact of US auto tariffs on the euro-zone. The key point is that... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly How would China retaliate? China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s Trump challenge Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
