China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Oct. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too. We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months – any drag from potential Trump tariffs may...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The trade deficit widened to $84.4bn in September, from an upwardly revised $70.8bn in August, as imports surged ahead of the short-lived port strike in October.

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct. 2024)

October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry

While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Oct .24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is...

1st November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Update

Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs

EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Our measure of capital outflows from EMs has jumped to its highest level since July 2022 amid the recent surge in US Treasury yields and strengthening of the dollar. If Donald Trump wins the US...

29th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico?

A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import...

29th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: default risks have eased, but not gone away

Investor sentiment towards Argentina has improved significantly in the past few months and it now looks like the government will probably be able to make the sovereign debt repayments that are due...

28th October 2024 · 5 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (October 2024)

The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read