Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Factoring the escalating trade war into our forecasts We are now incorporating a further escalation in the trade war with China into our global forecasts. We think that will knock a few tenths off annual US GDP growth this year and next. Core PCE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Preparing for a long trade war A deal to end the US-China trade dispute appears further away than ever. We now expect all US goods imports from China to be subject to a 25% tariff by early next year. China is likely to respond with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data point to net trade making a very large positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter, following the large negative contribution in the first quarter. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s current account deficit to widen further Weak export growth has caused Hungary’s current account balance to swing from a large surplus in 2016 to a small deficit, which is set to widen further. One consequence is that the forint is likely to... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war doesn’t account for much of the global slowdown The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US importers switching suppliers to avoid tariffs In response to the tariffs imposed on China, US importers are switching to alternative suppliers in Asia, which could explain why custom duties revenues have fallen back in the past couple of months... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US tariffs on Mexico and the implications for EMs US tariffs on imports from Mexico would have major repercussions for Mexico’s economy, but any spillovers on other EMs through trade links are likely to be small. For the rest of the emerging world... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May) Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff threats rock weakening economy The shock news that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico comes amid mounting evidence that the economy has already lost considerable momentum. The May employment... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump tariffs pose a growing threat to the outlook President Donald Trump’s shock announcement of tariffs on Mexican imports could be challenged by Congress, but the possibility that both Mexican and Chinese imports might be subject to a blanket 25%... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
