Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone’s upturn screeching to a halt? The most recent official euro-zone data have been weak and the latest business surveys are consistent in their message that the economic expansion has lost momentum. A sanguine view of this is that... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will China respond to additional US tariffs? If the USTR follows through on Trump’s request to add an additional $100bn worth of Chinese imports to the proposed US tariff list, the Chinese will be reluctant to capitulate and seem likely to... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The widening of the trade deficit in February isn’t a big concern because it was driven by an increase in imports, which points to growth in domestic demand. The small rebound in exports, which comes... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tariff bark could be worse than its bite For now, there is optimism that ongoing negotiations between the US and China will prevent a significant escalation in trade tensions. However, there remains a risk of rising protectionism, which... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to a near-decade high of $57.6bn in February, from $56.7bn, was entirely due to a one-off royalty payment for broadcasting rights to the Winter Olympics. But net... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) As Australia is more exposed than most other advanced economies to a further escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, the fall in its international trade surplus in February is... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Declaration of (trade) war? The speed and scale of China’s retaliation to the proposed US tariffs represents a significant escalation of tensions, though there is still plenty of time for a deal to be struck before tariffs come... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The likely consequences of escalating trade tensions Aside from equities in the US and China, those in Korea, Taiwan and South Africa appear particularly exposed to a further deterioration in Sino-American trade relations. And IT, consumer discretionary... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities down on protectionist fears Fears of a trade war between the US and China have weighed on Asian equities over the past month. In contrast, currency markets have been largely unaffected. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will trade fears dent growth? The recently announced US tariffs should have a limited direct effect on the UK economy. Admittedly, falls in equity prices – on the back of concerns over a full-blown trade war – could clearly have... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report next month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Currently, Thailand is the only country in... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Protectionist clouds gather As long as they aren’t followed by far more extensive trade sanctions than have been seen to date, the protectionist clouds looming over the global economy are unlikely to have a major bearing on... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
