Global Economics Chart Pack Trade spat not (yet) a big deal for global growth President Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium does not pose an immediate threat to the world economy. Together they account for only a small share of world trade, and we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are Trump’s tariffs for the euro-zone? The direct macroeconomic effects of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU exports would be very small. However, if this signals the beginning of a bigger shift towards US protectionism, followed by... 5th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential trigger points The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs target commodities It was generally a negative week for commodity prices. Oil prices tumbled and precious metals prices were buffeted by Jerome Powell’s testimony, which all but ensured a rate hike this month. China’s... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising Our long-held belief that a rebound in core inflation and faster economic growth, partly due to fiscal stimulus, would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates four times this year is rapidly becoming... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential triggers The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What will US tariffs mean for steel prices? President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports was expected. But what is perhaps more surprising is that the tariffs are particularly punitive and threaten to ignite... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a deal are the US tariffs? Steel and aluminium account for about 2% of world trade, so the direct impact on the global economy of the tariffs President Trump announced yesterday would be minimal. But the fact that they are... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone’s continued problems The large imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system indicate that all is still not quite right in the region. There are some good reasons to expect the imbalances to narrow again over the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Steel tariffs risk retaliatory action President Donald Trump’s announcement today that the US will impose major new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports didn’t come as a huge surprise, since the Commerce Department’s recent 232 report... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tendency Survey (Feb.) & Trade (Jan.) The recent softening of the Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But the survey still implies that growth will remain strong. 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our estimates show that outflow pressures eased at the start of this year after picking up in the fourth quarter. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at a more rapid pace last month... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade carries over momentum into 2018 Global trade volumes grew by 4.5% in 2017 as a whole – the fastest rate of annual growth in five years, and faster than the 3.7% expansion in global GDP. Encouragingly, the signs are that world trade... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone’s trade imbalances are just in remission The peripheral euro-zone countries have improved their competitiveness and eliminated their big current account deficits. But we think that they will struggle to maintain this improvement. And at the... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
