Asia Economics Weekly Trade downturn, Malaysia deflation, Thai election The past week has brought further bad news on the trade front, with more countries reporting a decline in exports. A turn in the electronics inventory cycle, the trade war and weaker global demand are... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the EM export slowdown The most notable explanation behind the recent sharp slowdown in EM export growth is the fall in commodity prices. But there are signs that softer global demand has also taken its toll. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Smaller trade deficit is here to stay India’s monthly goods trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low in February and, with oil prices set to remain low, we think the shortfall will remain small over the coming months. In turn, that should... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) The rebound in February’s exports was probably distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year. What’s more, the PMIs from Japan’s main trading partners suggest that exports will remain subdued... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone’s supply chain links: smaller than assumed Supply-chain links between Germany and the manufacturing sectors of other large euro-zone countries are smaller than people tend to think. As long as the slowdown in Germany is contained primarily to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump worsens The slump in EM exports deepened in the first few months of 2019, and with headwinds from low commodity prices and slower global growth likely to persist, we expect exports to remain extremely weak... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The larger-than-expected monthly increase in GDP of 0.5% in January (consensus 0.2%) is a reassuring sign that, up until January at least, the UK economy was weathering the political crisis at home... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The February trade data are downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions. Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US. But broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank mergers to lift profits, trade deal back on agenda Upcoming regulatory changes reported this week should help support an increase in bank profits and thereby neutralise one of the key arguments for why the Bank of Japan should reverse its ultra-loose... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade contracted most since financial crisis in Q4 World trade weakened much more than we had anticipated last year. As the global economy loses further momentum this year, world trade growth is likely to continue to be sluggish, regardless of whether... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The implications of a comprehensive US-China deal We have argued before that a limited US-China trade agreement ruling out further tariffs now appears largely priced in to markets. But the chances of a more comprehensive deal, including the roll-back... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
