Europe Economics Update German current account to remain under scrutiny Recent accusations that Germany has “cooked the books” to downplay its current account surplus are wide of the mark. But the surplus is clearly very large and seems unlikely to narrow in the next... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Latest impact assessments tell us nothing new The revelation that the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) has produced an assessment of the likely impact of various Brexit options on the economy has dominated the press this week, but does not... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China fight a trade war? If the long-running skirmishes between the US and China were to escalate into a trade war, China would try to occupy the moral high ground by portraying itself as a defender of free trade. At the time... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade thriving after Trump’s first year It will surely come as no surprise if President Donald Trump delivers another protectionist speech at Davos tomorrow. But his actions may continue to fall a long way short of his rhetoric. In any case... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly TPP and the dazzling dollar The resurrection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership signals that Australia is open for business, but it won’t significantly boost economic growth. A weakening in the Australian dollar from the dazzling... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, Trump and trade: the path ahead The trade protection measures that have so far been announced by the Trump administration are fairly small in scope and will not have much of a bearing on the outlook for EM exports. However, we’ve... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Revised TPP deal still good news for Asian members The agreement to press ahead with the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a decent boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia, but it... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The manufacturing PMI climbed to a four-year high in January and suggests that the economic expansion remained vigorous at the start of this year. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) While import volumes outpaced export volumes in December, we still think that net exports supported GDP growth last quarter. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update TPP deal overshadowed by NAFTA uncertainty The news that Canada has reached a deal on a new free trade agreement with the remaining ten TPP countries is no game changer since, even in the long term, the boost to Canadian GDP will be a trivial... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trump still pulling his punches on China trade The new US tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines may be aimed at China but look more like a continuation of the skirmishing of recent years than the first salvos of a trade war. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
